Guntram Werther

Guntram Werther has 25 years of Fortune 10 to Fortune 500 work at mid- to senior management levels, and his academic work has been evaluated as best-in-field, or best-in-world, four times.

In 2012/2014 Dr. Werther worked at top-of-field levels in five separate business disciplines. At top-of-government levels, the Program Manager of the Office of The Director of National Intelligence Proteus Futures Program wrote in 2012: “I believe that he is the leading practitioner of holistically forecasting future trends” (Auger 2012) and, in 2009, when this research was honored at the ODNI Intelligence Community Center for Academic Excellence, the Proteus’ Executive Director termed it “unequaled” (Wimbish III, 2009). The Society of Actuaries’ Extreme Risk Recognition Project Oversight Group Director and Munich RE Vice President stated in 2013, “His skills as a collaborator and insightful thinker would enhance even the strongest academic institution or research team.” Examples of recent highest-level activities include being invited speaker (2014) at Harvard Law School, plenary speaker (2013) at the quadrennial meeting of over 1,000 members of the International Congress of Actuaries, co-directing a project on societal resilience with Dr. Reuven Gal (National Security Council – Israel), being interviewed (2013) on industry best practice together with the Director of PricewaterhouseCoopers and Vice President of Munich RE, and plenary or keynote speaker at numerous events.

Since 1992, Dr. Werther’s Research has focused on: 1) holistically explaining emerging regional and global change dynamics, 2) holistically forecasting emerging futures, 3) developing better rare event foresight and risk assessments within regional and global markets, and 4) explaining the implications for strategy and the management of international operations (efficiency/comparative advantage) of emerging conflict (insurgency) styles.

Sample Publications

• Werther, Guntram. Forthcoming: October 2014. Holistic Thinking for Intelligence within a Complex Dynamic World. In Greg Moore, Editor. The Encyclopedia of U. S. Intelligence: Taylor & Francis. (Invited paper).
• Werther, Guntram. Forthcoming: October 2014. Shape Shifting of the Intelligence Community as a Response to New Challenges. In Greg Moore, Editor. The Encyclopedia of U. S. Intelligence: Taylor & Francis. (Invited paper)
• Werther, Guntram, Madigan, Kevin, Edwalds, Thomas, Spivey, Leah, and Scarpata, Peter. 2014. Beware of Model Tunnel Vision: Reliance on Models in Insurance and Reinsurance (1st Ed., Vol. 10, pp. 6-12).
• Werther, Guntram. 2014. Recognizing the Next Elephant in the Room: On the Better Forecasting of Extreme Event Emergence. 41(2), 35-37.
• Werther, Guntram. When Black Swans Aren’t: On Better Recognition, Assessment, and forecasting of Large Scale, Large Impact and Rare Event Change. Risk Management and Insurance Review. 2013: Vol. 16, No. 1, 1-23. (Invited paper).
• Werther, Guntram and Mohammad Yasin Khosti. 2013. Indigenous Peoples: Reshaping the International Security Environment; Implications for international security practitioners. Military Intelligence Professionals Bulletin. U.S. Army Intelligence Center of Excellence: January-March Special Edition 2013. 39 (1) 8.
• Werther, Guntram. 2013. Iterated Multi-level Thinking for Doing Improved Foresight, Forecasting, and Change Assessment. Part 2. (Vol. 31(3), pp. 8), Minneapolis: CPCU Society – Reinsurance Encounters.
• Werther, Guntram. 2013. Iterated Multi-Level Thinking for Doing Improved Foresight, Forecasting, and Change Assessment. Part 1. (2nd ed., vol. 31, pp. 8), Minneapolis: CPCU Society – Reinsurance Encounters.
• Werther, Guntram. 2013. Introduction to the AF&S Forum on National/Societal Resilience. Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 35. (Special Project and Forum co-directed with Reuven Gal, National Security Council – Israel).
• Werther, Guntram. 2013. Resilience: Its Conceptual Links to Creating Society-Specific Forecasts About Emerging Change. Armed Forces and Society, Vol. 35. (Special Project and Forum co-directed with Reuven Gal, National Security Council – Israel).
• Herget, Tom, Renora Stryker, with Guntram Werther. Are Black Swans Real? – Tips for Better Recognizing, Assessing and Responding to Emerging Extreme Events. The Actuary. April/May 2013, Vol. 10, Issue 2, 18-22

Teaching

Fox School of Business, Temple University

• BA 3103, Integrative Business Applications
• BA 4101, Global Business Policies (CAPSTONE)
• BA 4196, Global Business Policies (CAPSTONE)

At Other Universities:

• International Business: (graduate and undergraduate)
• International Political Economics (MBA – graduate)
• Patterns of International Trade and Development (MBA – graduate)
• MBA Strategic Management Capstone / Strategic Planning & Implementation (Doctoral)
• Leadership Intelligence (MBA) / Global Challenges (Doctoral)
• Entrepreneurial Leadership (MBA) / Leadership Innovation & Change (Doctoral)
• Graduate Research Methods
• MBA thesis and thesis defense