James Ostler

Research

My research interests focus on decision making under uncertainty. Most important business decisions are made based off of expectations of an uncertain future, and I believe that differences in the ability of organizations to manage uncertainty and differences in managerial judgment are the primary drivers of heterogeneity in performance. This then leads to two main themes in my work: (1) how organizations can strategically use uncertainty to their advantage, and (2) what good managerial judgment looks like, and what organizations (managers) can do to achieve the optimal judgment possible under the given circumstances.

The first main theme looks at how organizations can strategically use uncertainty to their advantage. This is a critical distinction that separates the field of strategy from classical decision-theoretic approaches that that deal with uncertainty as maximizing expected returns (such as NPV analysis or modern portfolio theory) when payoffs are determined exogenously or by chance. In strategic decision making an organizations actions impact the environment they are in. Instead of a game against “nature”, it is a game with/against another organization and “nature” is something that both gives context to the decision as well as something to be manipulated to your advantage. The second theme of my work explores what good managerial judgment looks like, and what organizations (managers) can do to achieve the optimal judgment possible under the given circumstances. To uncover the critical aspects of judgment I am particularly interested in understanding how cognitive representations are formed and what levers organizations have to influence these representations. 

Previous to pursuing an academic career I became enamored at what I saw as the critical role of business in improving the quality of life in our societies. I began my career as an engineer as I wanted to design/build products that would make the world better. However, I quickly realized that even great inventions have little chance of changing the world if they are not commercialized. I consequently obtained my MBA and gained experiences working at a start-up, as a consultant and at a Fortune 500 company. These experiences have led to three overlapping areas of application that I am particular interested in and that have influenced the contexts of my work. They are entrepreneurship, innovation and social contract theory (in particular the often overlooked role of organizations in the social contract that underlies civil societies). Further, in my experience the influence of institutions, both formal and informal, cannot be overstated, and this has also influenced both the context of my work as well as how I view what the important variables to explore are within any given context.