Scott Armstrong

Objectives and strategy:  Following Benjamin Franklin’s objectives for the University of Pennsylvania, Professor Armstrong strives to discover and disseminate useful knowledge. He uses experimental evidence to compare alternative reasonable hypotheses to identify management principles and techniques. In April 2015, he was the subject of an “Alain Elkann interview of thought leaders” on why his approach to research often leads to surprising findings.

Research Findings:  Armstrong has been associated with colleagues in developing and testing 91 useful findings for 17 areas, including: marketshare objectives harm profits, formal planning improves profitability, mandatory disclaimers harm consumers, mandated programs for corporate social responsibility are detrimental, high remuneration for CEOs harm stockholders, and peer review by scientific journals slows scientific development.). He also developed and tested “ExtrapolationbyWaves” (the widelyused method to correct for nonresponse bias in surveys), the Forecasting Audit, the SeerSucker Theory, the Index Method, the Golden Rule of Forecasting, and the Persuasion Principles Index. His research on forecasting climate change led to the conclusion that there is no scientific forecast to support the hypothesis of dangerous manmade global warming, and to his bet with former Vice President Al Gore (see theclimatebet.com). (The complete list of findings is on his resume.) Despite many counterintuitive findings in his studies, no substantive errors have been discovered . . . yet.

Research impact:  Scholars often read and use Armstrong’s research. In April 2016, his Google Scholar Citations numbered over 28,000 with an hscore of 65, and 154 papers with ten or more cites. In addition, the Social Science Research Network’s measure of “impact on researchers” put him in the top 0.1% of roughly 330,000 researchers listed on the site in 2017. Google News lists 200 articles related to his research. He has testified before a U.S. Senate committee and a U.S. House Committee on issues related to global warming. Armstrong’s papers and books are widely read. There are about 85,000 downloads of his papers per year from the Scholarly Commons, and he is in the top 0.4% for annual downloads from the SSRN.

Publications:  Research Gate lists about 400 publications for Armstrong. He authored LongRange Forecasting and the Principles of Forecasting Handbook. His book, Persuasive Advertising, was a finalist for the American Marketing Association’s “Best Book in Marketing” in 2011.

Founder:  He is a cofounder of the Journal of Forecasting, International Journal of Forecasting,  International Institute of Forecasters, International Symposium on Forecasting, and PollyVote.com. The latter has provided the most accurate forecasts for U.S. Presidential elections since its launch in the 2004 election. He founded ForecastingPrinciples.com and AdvertisingPrinciples.com, as ways of learning about evidencebased principles and techniques via the Internet. The advertising site received MERLOT’s 2004 award as the “Best Internet Site in Business Education” and it is ranked #1 of the 286 advertising sites reviewed by MERLOT. In 2016, Kesten Green and he founded the Iron Law of Regulation Website, an evidencebased approach to to summarize experimental evidence on the effect of regulations on the general welfare.

Educational background and experience:

  M.I.T., Cambridge, MA: Ph.D. in Management (1968)

Carnegie Mellon University, Pittsburgh, PA: M.S. in Industrial Administration (1965)

Lehigh University, Bethlehem, PA: B.A. in Applied Science (1959), and B.S. in Industrial Engineering (1960)

He has been on the Wharton School faculty since 1968. He has also been a “Research Adjunct” at the EhrenbergBass Institute, University of South Australia, Adelaide since 2011.

He has had 24 international visiting appointments at 17 universities. These include 1.5 years at the Stockholm School of Economics in 19745 and one year at IMD in Lausanne, Switzerland during 19801. He has given over 110 invited lectures at universities in 28 countries outside the U.S.

Recognition and awards:

“Lifetime Achievement Award in Climate Science” from the Heartland Institute at the 12^th International Conference on Climate Change (2017) Acceptance speech. For summary of research, see his talk at this conference.

Received the initial award for the “Armstrong Brilliance in Research in Marketing Award” from the Global Alliance of Marketing and Management Associations at the Global Marketing Conference, Hong Kong, (2016).

For my career as a forecaster, see the “Interview of J. Scott Armstrong,” International Journal of Forecasting (2012)

Named one of the “25 Most Famous College Professors Teaching Today” (2010)

Listed as one of the "55 of the Hottest, Smartest, Most Talked About College Professors." (2007)

Received the “Distinguished Scholar Award” from the Society for Marketing Advances (2000)

The Silver Jubilee Lecture for the College of Business, Massey University, New Zealand (1997)

Honorary Fellow for “Distinguished Contributions to Forecasting” by the International Institute of Forecasters (1996).

Ranked 15th among U. S. marketing professors based on peer ratings, citations, and publications (Kirkpatrick & Locke 1989)

 April 17, 2017

J. Scott Armstrong and Kesten C. Green, Demand Forecasting II: EvidenceBased Methods and Checklists.

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, Alfred G. Cuzán, Randall J. Jones Jr. (2017), The 2016 Pollyvote Popular Vote Forecast: A Preliminary Analysis, PS: Political Science and Politics.

Andreas Graefe, J. Scott Armstrong, Randall J. Jones Jr. Alfred G. Cuzán, Assessing the 2016 U.S. Presidential Election Popular Vote Forecasts.

J. Scott Armstrong, Andreas Graefe, R. J. Jones, Jr. A.G. Cuzan (2016), ‘The PollyVote Forecast for the 2016 American Presidential Election’ , PS: Political Science & Politics, 49 (4), pp. 687690. 10.1017/S1049096516001281

J. Scott Armstrong, K.C. Green, Andreas Graefe (2016), Golden Rule of Forecasting Rearticulated: Forecast unto Others as You Would Have Them Forecast Unto You, Journal of Business Research, 68, pp. 17681771.

J. Scott Armstrong and K.C. Green (Working), Guidelines for Science: Evidence and Checklists.

J. Scott Armstrong, Rui Du, K.C. Green, Andreas Graefe (2016), Persuasion Principles Index , European Journal of Marketing, 50, pp. 317326.

J. Scott Armstrong, Rui Du, Kesten C. Green, Andreas Graefe (2016), Predictive Validity of EvidenceBased Persuasion Principles , European Journal of Marketing, 50, pp. 276293.

J. Scott Armstrong (Working), Do econometric models provide more accurate forecasts when they are more conservative? A test of political economy models for forecasting elections.

Kesten C. Green and J. Scott Armstrong (2015), Simple versus complex forecasting: The evidence, Journal of Business Research.

Can Science Improve Advertising

Past Courses

MKTG265 PRINCIPLES OF ADVERTISNG

This course focuses on advertising via all media print, digital, video, TV, Internet, etc. Emphasis is placed on understanding the communication development process and consumer behavior (psychology), the measurement and evaluation of advertising effects, and developing appropriate media plans.

MKTG399 INDEPENDENT STUDY

MKTG754 PRICING POLICY

The course provides a systematic presentation of the factors to be considered when setting price, and shows how pricing alternatives are developed. Analytical methods are developed and new approaches are explored for solving pricing decisions.

MKTG899 INDEPENDENT STUDY

A student contemplating an independent study project must first find a faculty member who agrees to supervise and approve the student's written proposal as an independent study (MKTG 899). If a student wishes the proposed work to be used to meet the ASP requirement, he/she should then submit the approved proposal to the MBA adviser who will determine if it is an appropriate substitute. Such substitutions will only be approved prior to the beginning of the semester.

“Lifetime Achievement Award in Climate Science” from the Heartland Institute at the 12th International Conference on Climate Change (2017), 2017 Selected as Inaugural Lecturer for the “Armstrong Brilliance in Research in Marketing Award”, 2016 Named one of the “25 Most Famous College Professors Teaching Today”, 2010 One of the “55 of the Hottest, Smartest, Most Talked About College Professors”, 2007 SMA/JAI Press Distinguished Scholar Award for 2000, 2000 Description

Scott Armstrong was a recipient of this award – along with Philip Kotler and Gerald Zaltman – in November, 2000 in Orlando.

Silver Jubilee Lecturer for the 25th anniversary celebration of the College of Business at Massey University in New Zealand, 1998 Description

The Silver Jubilee Lecturer for the 25th anniversary celebration of the College of Business at Massey University in New Zealand, October 1997. His talk was "Management Science: What Does It Have to Do with Management or Science?" Marketing Bulletin, 9 (May 1998), 115.

Honorary Fellow for “Distinguished contributions in forecasting”, 1996 Description

One of the first six Honorary Fellows for “distinguished contributions to forecasting,” International Institute of Forecasters, 1996.

IJF Best Paper Award 2017, Rob J Hyndman 07/12/2017 Response to MIT President: Paris Exit Scientifically Sound (Part II), Master Resource 07/06/2017 Response to MIT President: Paris Exit Scientifically Sound (Part I), Master Resource 07/05/2017 J. Scott Armstrong: ‘Give Us Your Money, and We’ll Save You’ Is the Battle Cry of Politicized Science, Breitbart 04/24/2017 Armstrong and Green: What Does the March for Science Mean by ‘Science’?, Breitbart 04/22/2017 We need new rules to help rein in executive pay club, The Australian 04/10/2017 J Scott Armstrong on Breitbart News Daily: ‘No One Asks’ Researchers To Follow Scientific Method, Breitbart 03/31/2017 J Scott Armstrong: Fewer Than 1 Percent Of Papers in Scientific Journals Follow Scientific Method, Breitbart 03/29/2017 Heartland Institute Award Winner Compares Work of Climate Science Deniers to 9/11 Firefighters, Desmog 03/23/2017 Top CEOs do come cheaper, says business professor, The Australian 03/23/2017 With Trump in the White House, states could step up on climate change, Fox News 11/25/2016 6 books that influence guru Robert Cialdini wants you to read, MarketWatch 10/05/2016 PollyVote gives a reliable forecast about the Election. Prepare for Hillary., Fabius Maximus website (blog) 09/16/2016 Most Forecasters Predict a Win for Clinton, Except for Two, The Fiscal Times 09/03/2016 Here’s What The Wharton School Of Business Really Thinks Of Donald Trump, Huffington Post 08/17/2016 What Wharton Thinks of Trump, Huffington Post 08/17/2016 11 definizioni tratte dal dizionario finanziario del diavolo … Leggi tutto: http://www.soldionline.it/guide/libreriafinanza/11definizionidizionariofinanziariodeldiavolo?cp=1, AbcRisparmio 06/29/2016 Let’s take control! Brexit and sovereignty, Open Democracy 06/12/2016 Why Even the Best Forecasters Sometimes Miss the Mark, Knowledge@Wharton 04/19/2016 Our biographical model predicts Clinton would defeat Trump by a landslide, but would be tied with Cruz, USAPP American Politics and Policy (blog) 04/15/2016 Wharton prof. has been predicting presidential elections since 2004, The Daily Pennsylvanian 03/13/2016 New Study Shows Simple Forecasts Beat Complex Forecasts, Equities.com 09/24/2015 Scientists Back Besieged Climate Researcher, The American Spectator 08/04/2015 NASA Conspiracy in Antartica, Liberty Voice 05/23/2015 When Big Companies Sponsor Stuff, Does It Work?, New York Magazine 05/12/2015 Why C.E.O. Pay Reform Failed, The New Yorker 04/20/2015 Forecasts of Dangerous ManMade Global Warming are Not Valid, La Stampa 04/12/2015 Scientists Debunk Climate Models, The New American 04/08/2015 IPCC’s Violation of Forecasting Principles, Heartland Daily Podcast 04/06/2015 Missing the mark on climate change skepticism, Washington Times 03/24/2015 Are We Victims of Aggressive Advertising?, Sputnik News 03/04/2015 Are C.E.O.s That Talented, or Just Lucky?, The New York Times 02/07/2015 Warning: The Article You’re About to Read Might Make You Laugh, Wall Street Journal 01/22/2015 Description

Refers to the Green and Armstrong paper on mandatory dislaimers.

Lessons From a Year of Market Surprises: Reviewing the Year in Markets, The Wall Street Journal 12/30/2014 The Global Warming War 11/05/2014 Description

Is Social Psychology Biased Against Republicans?, The New Yorker 10/30/2014 10 things CEOs won’t tell you, The Wall Street Journal 05/09/2014 Business school experts: High CEO pay hurts American companies, stockholders, Fox News: Opinion Section 04/15/2014 Gap between executive pay and worker wages continues to grow, Al Jazeera 04/15/2014 Which Half of your Budget is Being Wasted?, VMARKETING China 04/01/2014 Forget what you know about hiring a CEO, The Globe and Mail 03/09/2014 Try This: Hire the CEO by not meeting the candidate first, The Globe and Mail 03/09/2014 Four Actionable Findings on Executive Compensation, Wharton Magazine 03/07/2014 Big Company CEOs Just Aren’t Worth What We Pay Them, Forbes 03/06/2014 The Miracle of Combining Forecasts, Smart Data Collective 02/16/2014 Value of Stock “Experts” is Up for Debate, Wall Street Journal 01/03/2014 Experimenting with health care — does ObamaCare harm or hurt?, Fox News 12/24/2013 Global climate models and their limitations: Model simulation and forecasting Methods and principles, Climate Change Reconsidered II: Physical Science 12/23/2013 EPA v. USA, The New American 12/16/2013 On the Face of it: The Psychology of Electability, The New Yorker 11/18/2013 Obama’s Executive Order on Climate, Renew America 11/06/2013 Why Not to Confuse Forecasting with Modeling, Wharton Magazine 10/28/2013 The Science Fiction of IPCC Climate Models, Human Events 10/24/2013 Los Angeles Times endorses censorship with ban on letters from Climate Skeptics 10/18/2013 Climate forecast: All’s well, despite what the IPCC says, Financial Post 10/08/2013 Evidencebased Forecasting for Global Warming 07/14/2013 Description

Talk given in Houston, July 14, 2013 at the Doctors for Disaster Preparedness Conference.

High pay does not equal high equity, Financial Times 05/19/2013 Regulating Reverse Psychology, Wharton Magazine 04/11/2013 Advertising as free speech, The Washington Times 03/27/2013 Advertising Disclaimers Are Worthless, And They Mislead Customers, Forbes 02/27/2013 How Healthrelated Disclaimers are Fooling You, US News and World Report 02/12/2013 A Friendly Bet on Global Warming, Wharton Magazine 02/07/2013 Climate Seers as Blind Guides 02/04/2013 No cause for alarm at fiveyear midpoint of the ArmstrongGore climate bet, Watts Up With That? 01/19/2013 Taking a Stand on Climate Change CostBenefit Analysis, Wharton Magazine 01/07/2013 Should Government Force companies to be Responsible, IPA Review 12/01/2012 Letter judged as ‘not fit to print’, New York Times 11/15/2012 Science Drives Out Pseudoscience, The Wall Street Journal 11/01/2012 ‘Moneyball’ for Managers: Paul Meehl’s Legacy, Wharton Magazine 02/07/2012 No Need to Panic About Global Warming, The Wall Street Journal 01/27/2012 Description

This letter drew in 2539 responses to the WSJ online version.

A history of scientific alarms, IPA Review 12/01/2011 Ten Things CEOs Won’t Tell You, The Wall Street Journal 07/05/2011 The Dangers of a Competitor Orientation 06/08/2011 Testimony Before U.S. House Committee on Climate Change, Climate Depot 03/31/2011 How to Decide U.S. Policy in Iran, North Korea, Egypt, Libya … And So On 03/01/2011 “Let’s Deal in Science and Facts”, Wall Street Journal 11/19/2010 Description

A letter to the editor regarding government spending on global warming policies.

Polly the Parrot Predicts the Outcome of the U.S. Midterm Elections, Wharton Magazine 10/20/2010 Experience Versus Evidence in Advertising, Wharton Magazine 09/28/2010 Forecasting Problems for Global Warming Alarmists, Environment & Climate News 07/01/2010 Interview of the author about Persuasive Advertising, Fox News 05/25/2010 A Reexamination of Climate Change Issues, News of Interest.TV 11/23/2009 Climate panel on the hot seat, The Washington Times 03/14/2008 “55 of the Hottest, Smartest, Most Talked About College Professors” (See Newsworthy Professors), CollegeDegree.com 07/07/2007 One Expert is Willing to Bet Money Al Gore is Wrong About Global Warming, Fox News 06/27/2007 In Praise of Third Place, by James Surowiecki, The New Yorker, The Financial Page 12/12/2006 “Review of my several articles and books” – Search under Author for Armstrong, http://manyworlds.com 01/02/2006 Video of interview with CN8 Money Matters Today:, WMV file(31,421 KB) 11/01/2005 “Flaws are found in validating medical studies: Many see need to overhaul standards for peer review”, The Boston Globe 08/15/2005 “Improving Learning at Universities: Who is Responsible?”, University of Pennsylvania Almanac 12/14/2004 Howard Brody (Nov. 7, 04)”The Vioxx of Yesteryear: A Recurring Pattern in Pharmaceuticals”, In City Pulse, lansingcitypulse.com Full Text. 11/07/2004 Letter to Wall Street Journal, Oct. 11, 2004:, Are MBA's Really Learning How to Do Things? 10/11/2004 “Article in Financial Times of Germany”, Re Pollyvote page on politicalforecasting.com 10/04/2004 “Not Just Play Acting”, http://www.crn.com 07/22/2003 “Why We Argue About the War on Terrorism: Bad Forecasts and How to Avoid Them”, BBC 03/03/2003 “Psyched Up,” Peter A. Buxbaum, Operations and Fulfillment 03/03/2003 “Game or Serious Business?”, Financial Times 12/02/2002 “Role Playing Can Help You See the Future Through Someone Else’s Eyes”, Entrepreneur 09/02/2002 “Rehearsing for Success”, Business2.0.com 07/01/2002 “The Forecaster’s Toolkit,” Erik Sherman, Catalyst 01/01/2002 “Setting Your Sites on Global Data”, Business Finance 06/01/2001 Role Playing: A Method to Forecast Decisions, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1999 Integration of Statistical Methods and Judgment for Time Series Forecasting: Principles from Empirical Research, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1998 Competitor Orientation: Effects of Objectives and Information on Managerial Decisions and Profitability, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1997 Social Irresponsibility in Management, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1997 Peer Review for Journals: Evidence on Quality Control, Fairness, and Innovation, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1997 We Need to Rethink the Editorial Role of Peer Reviewers 10/25/1996 Asymmetric Errors in Extrapolation: An Empirical Analysis of Causes, Knowledge@Wharton 01/02/1995 Principles Involving Marketing Policy: An Empirical Assessment, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1993 Causal Forces: Structuring Knowledge for Timeseries Extrapolation, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1993 “Myth of the Market Share”, Wharton Alumni Magazine 01/01/1992 Does the Need for Agreement among Reviewers Inhibit the Publication of Controversial Findings?, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1991 “The Case for Minimum Teaching Standards”, Wharton Almanac 01/01/1990 “Forecasting: Of Suckers and Seers”, The Press 07/03/1985 “Dear Diary: 114 Hours is an A in Time Contract Class”, The Daily Pennsylvanian 10/31/1983 “Time Contracts”, Interfaces 08/01/1983 “A New Approach to Grading (and to Learning)”, Administrator 07/01/1983 “As Symposium, Confessions of Economic Forecasters”, Philadelphia Inquirer 06/08/1983 “Economic Forecasters Convene at the Wharton School”, Philadelphia Inquirer 06/06/1983 “Symposium on Forecasting”, Huntsville Times 05/02/1983 “The Art of Forecasting Falls on Hard Times”, Newport News 05/01/1983 “Wanted: Dull, Obscure Research”, The San Francisco Chronicle 11/28/1982 “Please, No Breakthroughs”, Omni 11/01/1982 “The Body”, Omni 09/01/1982 “Bafflegab”, American Journal of Nursing 09/01/1982 “This Football Fan Hopes that NFL Players Do Strike”, The Philadelphia Inquirer 07/01/1982 “Scholars Propose Methods of Improving the Peer Review of Articles”, The Chronicle of Higher Education 06/23/1982 “Scientific Journals Cater to Authors, Not Readers”, The Arizona Republic 03/28/1982 “Journals Prefer Predictable Results”, Sunday News Journal 03/28/1982 “Professor Knocks Quality of Research Papers”, The Daily Pennsylvanian 03/26/1982 “Armstrong Posits Offbeat Formula for Hopeful Authors”, The Wharton Journal 03/25/1982 “Plain Prose: It’s Seldom Seen in Journals”, Philadelphia Inquirer 03/23/1982 “The ‘Seersucker Theory’ of Economic Forecasting”, Rhode Island Herald 02/25/1982 Barriers to Scientific Contributions: The Author’s Formula, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1982 Strategies for Implementing Change: An Experiential Approach, Knowledge@Wharton 01/01/1982 “How Expert Are the Experts?”, Inc 12/01/1981 “Is ‘Unintelligible’ Best?”, Supervisory Management 12/01/1980 “Diary of Impermeable Prose”, The London Times 06/09/1980 “Concerning Bafflegab”, Johns Hopkins Magazine 06/01/1980 “Bafflegab Pays”, Psychology Today 05/12/1980 “Incomprehensible You Say? Brilliant!”, The Philadelphia Bulletin 03/31/1980 “The Language: MultiSyllabic Illiteracy”, Philadelphia Inquirer 03/25/1980 Five, UPI Releases 03/10/1980 “Telling Lies”, Wall Street Journal, 02/01/1979 “And Here’s a Look at a Wharton School Maverick”, Pennsylvania Gazette 01/01/1979 “The Corporate Mindset”, Human Behavior 12/01/1978 “Armstrong Sells Ethics to MBA’s”, The Wharton Journal 10/19/1978 “Forecaster Charges It’s Much Overrated”, Philadelphia Inquirer 07/10/1978 “A Case of Ethics”, Philadelphia Inquirer 05/08/1978 “Can We Teach Social Responsibility?”, New Castle News 04/18/1978 “One Moment Please”, The Business of Ethics 01/01/1978 “Social Irresponsibility in Management”, http://repository.upenn.edu/cgi/viewcontent.cgi?article=1041&context=marketing_papers 01/01/1978 “Ethics Sometimes ‘Forgotten’ in Corporate World”, CallChronicle 02/06/1977 “Ethics Courses in Business School”, Philadelphia Inquirer 01/10/1977 Reference to “Social Irresponsibility in Management” in “Epilogue: Greed and Goodness”, Journal of Business Research, 5 (September), 185213. Full Text(PDF) 01/01/1977 Description

Philip J. Hilts (2003), "Epilogue: Greed and Goodness," Protecting America’s Health: The FDA, Business, and One Hundred Years of Regulation, New York: Alfred A. Knopf, Full Text – Refers to J. Scott Armstrong (1977), "Social Irresponsibility in Management"

Knowledge @ Wharton

The ‘Moneyball’ Approach to Hiring CEOs, Knowledge @ Wharton 02/03/2014 The ‘Myth of Market Share’: Can Focusing Too Much on the Competition Harm Profitability?, Knowledge @ Wharton 01/24/2007 How Credible Are Polls? Is There a Better Way to Predict Outcomes in Politics and Business, Knowledge @ Wharton 11/03/2004 Corporate Boards Should Represent a Broader Community of Interests, Knowledge @ Wharton 09/11/2002 Forecasting in Conflicts: How to Predict What Your Opponent Will Do, Knowledge @ Wharton 02/13/2002 Ice Hockey, Homicide and the Principles of Forecasting, Knowledge @ Wharton 08/29/2001 Role Playing as a Forecasting Tool, Knowledge @ Wharton 09/17/1999