Victor Jose

Victor Jose is an associate professor in the Operations and Information Management (OPIM) area of the McDonough School of Business, where he also holds the William and Karen Sonneborn Term Chair in Business Administration. His areas of research interest and expertise are decision/risk analysis and forecasting, with a particular focus on the development of prescriptive models and tools that could help managers make good decisions in uncertain environments. In particular, he has worked extensively in the areas of probability elicitation, forecast verification, and expert combination of forecasts. Aside from this, he also has a long-standing interest in data science, Bayesian statistics, and stochastic modeling. His work has appeared in leading academic journals such as Management Science and Operations Research. Currently, Professor Jose teaches the core statistics class for the MBA and undergraduate business programs. Aside from managerial statistics, he has previously taught classes in quantitative analysis, operations management, research methods, decision making, and spreadsheet modeling.

Education

Duke University - Ph.D.

Publications

Articles in Journals (17)

Jose, V. R. R., J. Zhuang. "Incorporating Risk Preferences in Stochastic Noncooperative Games." IISE Transactions (formerly IIE Transacations) (2018)

Zhang, J., J. Zhuang, V. R. R. Jose. "The Role Of Risk Preferences In A Multi-target Defender-attacker Resource Allocation Game." Reliability Engineering & System Safety, 169 (2018): 95-104.

Payyappalli, V. M., J. Zhuang, V. R. R. Jose. "Deterrence And Risk Preferences In Sequential Attacker-defender Games With Continuous Efforts." Risk Analysis, 37, 11 (2017): 2229-2245.

Grushka-Cockayne, Y., V. R. R. Jose, K. C. Lichtendahl. "Ensembles of Overfit and Overconfident Forecasts." Management Science, 63, 4 (2017): 1110–1130.

Jose, V. R. R.. "Percentage and Relative Error Measures in the Evaluation of Forecasts.." Operations Research, 65, 1 (2017): 200-211.

Grushka-Cockayne, Y. K. C. Lichtendahl, V. R. R. Jose, R. L. Winkler. "Quantile Evaluation, Sensitivity To Bracketing, And Sharing Business Payoffs." Operations Research, 65, 3 (2017): 712-728.

Jose, V. R. R.. "Discussion of 'Of Quantiles and Expectiles: Consistent Scoring Functions, Choquet Representations and Forecast Rankings'." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series B, 78, 3 (2016): 547-548.

Jose, V. R. R., Y. Grushka-Cockayne, K. Lichtendahl Jr. "Trimmed Opinion Pools and the Crowd's Calibration Problem." Management Science, 60, 2 (2014): 463-475.

Johnstone, D. J., S. Jones, V. R. R. Jose, M. Peat. "Measures of the Economic Value of Bankruptcy Probabilities." Journal of the Royal Statistical Society Series A, 176, 3 (2013): 635-653.

Jose, V. R. R., J. Zhuang. "Technology Adoption, Accumulation, and Competition in Multi-Period Attacker-Defender Games." Military Operations Research, 18, 2 (2013): 33-47.

Johnstone, D. J., V. R. R. Jose, R. L. Winkler. "Tailored Scoring Rules for Probabilities." Decision Analysis, 8, 4 (2011): 256-268.

Jose, V. R. R.. "A Characterization of the Spherical Scoring Rule." Theory and Decision, 66, 3 (2009): 263-281.

Jose, V. R. R., R. L. Winkler. "Evaluating Quantile Assessments." Operations Research, 8, 4 (2009): 256-268.

Jose, V. R. R., R. F. Nau, R. L. Winkler. "Sensitivity to Distance and Baseline Distributions in Forecast Evaluation." Management Science, 55, 4 (2009): 582-590.

Winkler, R. L., V. R. R. Jose. "Comment on ‘Assessing Probabilistic Forecasts of Multivariate Quantities with an Application to Ensemble Prediction of Surface Winds’." Test: Journal of the Spanish Statistical Society, 17, 2 (2008): 251-255.

Jose, V. R. R., R. F. Nau, R. L. Winkler. "Scoring Rules, Generalized Entropy, and Utility Maximization." Operations Research, 56, 5 (2008): 1146-1157.

Jose, V. R. R., R. L. Winkler. "Simple Robust Averages of Forecasts: Some Empirical Results." International Journal of Forecasting, 24, 1 (2008): 163-169.

Articles in Books (3)

Jose, V. R. R.. "Assessing Probability Distributions from Data." Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2011.

Winkler, R. L., V. R. R. Jose. "Scoring Rules." Wiley Encyclopedia of Operations Research and Management Science, New York: John Wiley & Sons, 2011.

Jose, V. R. R., K.C. Lichtendahl, R.F. Nau, R.L. Winkler. "Comment on Objective Priors for the Multivariate Normal Distribution.." Bayesian Statistics 8, Oxford: University Press, 2007.

Articles in Conference/Workshop Proceedings (2) Nau, R. F., V. R. R. Jose, R. L. Winkler. "Duality Between Maximization of Expected Utility and Minimization of Relative Entropy When Probabilities are Imprecise." , Durham, UK: ISIPTA, 2009.

Nau, R. F., V. R. R. Jose, R. L. Winkler. "Scoring Rules, Entropy and Imprecise Probabilities." , Prague: Action M Agency, 2007.